The headline is bullish: Trump peace deal, oil risk cooling, Saylor buying the dip.
But the chart is more nuanced.
BTC is trading around $66,802, and the bounce is real. Price is above EMA20 at $64,927 and EMA50 at $64,358, while MACD remains bullish and ADX at 49.1 confirms trend strength.
The problem is extension.
RSI is 74.0, Stochastic is 87.4, and MFI is 75.8。 Price is also pressing the upper Bollinger Band near $66,978, while still below EMA200 at $69,120.
So I’m not chasing the蜡烛。
现在的关键区域是$64,739-$63,450。这之前是看跌的供应，但价格已经高于它。这意味着真正的问题是 BTC 是否可以将回收的区域作为支撑。
My Plan
I’m trading the retest, not the headline.
If BTC pulls into $65,314-$64,183 and holds, I’d look for continuation toward $69,120.
If BTC loses $64,183 and then $63,450, the bounce starts looking like a failed reclaim, and I’d expect pressure back toward $60,691.
Verdict: Bullish bounce, but overheated. Wait for retest confirmation or EMA200 reclaim.
Are you buying the retest, or waiting for BTC to clear $69K first?
<块引用> 这是我个人的市场分析，不是财务建议。始终进行自己的研究并仔细管理风险。
But the chart is more nuanced.
BTC is trading around $66,802, and the bounce is real. Price is above EMA20 at $64,927 and EMA50 at $64,358, while MACD remains bullish and ADX at 49.1 confirms trend strength.
The problem is extension.
RSI is 74.0, Stochastic is 87.4, and MFI is 75.8。 Price is also pressing the upper Bollinger Band near $66,978, while still below EMA200 at $69,120.
So I’m not chasing the蜡烛。
现在的关键区域是$64,739-$63,450。这之前是看跌的供应，但价格已经高于它。这意味着真正的问题是 BTC 是否可以将回收的区域作为支撑。
- 回调磁铁：$65,314-$64,183看涨FVG
- 必须持有的回收区： $64,739-$63,450
- 继续测试： EMA200 接近 69,120 美元
- 失败的反弹目标： 60,691 美元
My Plan
I’m trading the retest, not the headline.
If BTC pulls into $65,314-$64,183 and holds, I’d look for continuation toward $69,120.
If BTC loses $64,183 and then $63,450, the bounce starts looking like a failed reclaim, and I’d expect pressure back toward $60,691.
Verdict: Bullish bounce, but overheated. Wait for retest confirmation or EMA200 reclaim.
Are you buying the retest, or waiting for BTC to clear $69K first?
<块引用> 这是我个人的市场分析，不是财务建议。始终进行自己的研究并仔细管理风险。